As we all hunker down or at least change our daily routines to include working from home and social distancing amidst the COVID-19 outbreak, the economy struggles to adapt to the acute and devastating change in business and consumer spending. While the U.S. and global economy is dynamic and will undoubtedly adapt and recover from the impact, for purposes of this discussion, we reference the impact that recessions have on state tax revenue collections and what states have done to address reduced tax revenue. We then consider the proactive measures companies should be taking now to enhance sales tax compliance processes and minimize risk and liabilities.
the effect of a recession on state tax collections, therefore, often translates into one or more of the following policy alternatives: 1) Raise the tax rate, 2) Change the tax base, 3) Seek additional funding sources
According to the July 1993 US Census Bureau’s Statistical Brief, Recessions Matter for State Tax Collections, sales tax accounts for the largest portion of state tax revenue collections. According to the Bureau, “[t]he 1990-1991 recession was particularly challenging for State government finances. For fiscal 1991, States experienced only a 3.3 percent rate of tax growth – the smallest rate of increase since ... the 1957-58 recession.” The report goes on to note that “[r]ecessions are events with ‘big time’ consequences for State tax growth rates and revenue totals through their effects on retail sales and personal income.” The 1990-91 recession was also marked by a lack of inflation, which meant lower prices and even less sales tax collections on retail sales. This makes sense, as consumer spending and retail sales fall, and prices drop (rather than rise), sales tax remittances plummet.
The report concludes that “[t]he effect of a recession on state tax collections, therefore, often translates into one or more of the following policy alternatives”:
- Raise the tax rate
- Change the tax base
- Seek additional funding sources
While the first alternative is typically politically unattractive – as legislators do not prefer to raise taxes on constituents – the latter two alternatives are typically employed, and often in tandem. We address each of these latter two in turn: